Written in the wake of the EU referendum of 23rd June 2016...
1. The UK is a deeply divided nation. There are sharp differences between the ways that the country voted: people under 40 voted to Remain, over-40s to Leave; Scotland (62%) and Northern Ireland (56%) voted strongly to Remain, England (53%) and Wales (52%) to Leave. My guess is that there will turn out to be similar divisions by social class and educational attainment, too.
2. This is not a result that the losers will readily accept. The Scottish independence referendum wasn’t well accepted by the Yes voters, and that was a clearer outcome. It’s not hard to see some attempt being made to reverse or at least negate the result, which in turn would be resented by the Leave campaign.
3. Nationalism is a powerful sentiment. For those on the margins of politics, the poor, the unemployed, the poorly-educated, the disaffected, it’s easily understood – “Scotland for the Scots”, “Britain for the Brits” etc.. Unscrupulous politicians & media can tap into that.
4. For the same reason, a referendum is a fabulous way that these disaffected voters can punch the noses of establishment politicians. The more the establishment unites, the more attractive a target it becomes. It happens all the time.
5. We may have learned that we haven’t learned anything. 52% isn’t a mandate of any sort, whether to Remain or to Leave. Parliament still has to endorse and ratify all of this, and if the terms of leaving prove too unpalatable for the UK public, the decision might yet be reversed. What happens if an election is held in the next two years and the winning party has a clear mandate for EU membership?
6. When will politicians learn? Never hold a referendum that you can’t be absolutely sure of winning. This was all so unnecessary and it’s now cost both Alex Salmond and David Cameron their jobs in the space of under two years. We live in a democracy, sure, but it’s a representative democracy in which we elect politicians to govern on our behalf to the best of their ability – and we judge their performance every five years. Governments should only use referendums to endorse decisions they’ve already taken – to win ‘public acclaim’ – as in the referendum to set up the Scottish Parliament. Calling a referendum because you lack the courage to take decision yourself – whatever the result – is in itself neglect of duty and probably renders anyone who does so unfit for public office.
1. The UK is a deeply divided nation. There are sharp differences between the ways that the country voted: people under 40 voted to Remain, over-40s to Leave; Scotland (62%) and Northern Ireland (56%) voted strongly to Remain, England (53%) and Wales (52%) to Leave. My guess is that there will turn out to be similar divisions by social class and educational attainment, too.
2. This is not a result that the losers will readily accept. The Scottish independence referendum wasn’t well accepted by the Yes voters, and that was a clearer outcome. It’s not hard to see some attempt being made to reverse or at least negate the result, which in turn would be resented by the Leave campaign.
3. Nationalism is a powerful sentiment. For those on the margins of politics, the poor, the unemployed, the poorly-educated, the disaffected, it’s easily understood – “Scotland for the Scots”, “Britain for the Brits” etc.. Unscrupulous politicians & media can tap into that.
4. For the same reason, a referendum is a fabulous way that these disaffected voters can punch the noses of establishment politicians. The more the establishment unites, the more attractive a target it becomes. It happens all the time.
5. We may have learned that we haven’t learned anything. 52% isn’t a mandate of any sort, whether to Remain or to Leave. Parliament still has to endorse and ratify all of this, and if the terms of leaving prove too unpalatable for the UK public, the decision might yet be reversed. What happens if an election is held in the next two years and the winning party has a clear mandate for EU membership?
6. When will politicians learn? Never hold a referendum that you can’t be absolutely sure of winning. This was all so unnecessary and it’s now cost both Alex Salmond and David Cameron their jobs in the space of under two years. We live in a democracy, sure, but it’s a representative democracy in which we elect politicians to govern on our behalf to the best of their ability – and we judge their performance every five years. Governments should only use referendums to endorse decisions they’ve already taken – to win ‘public acclaim’ – as in the referendum to set up the Scottish Parliament. Calling a referendum because you lack the courage to take decision yourself – whatever the result – is in itself neglect of duty and probably renders anyone who does so unfit for public office.
